Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile has solid field

Horseracing Betting Lines

11/03/2011 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - One mile, eight-furlongs, once around the track. Mile races are the cross-roads event in the thoroughbred world. The meeting of sprinters and distance runners.

The fifth edition of the $1 million Dirt Mile, and the second time at Churchill Downs, has a highly competitive field of nine. With the layout at the historic track the race will be a one-turn event. Last year at the Twin Spires, Dakota Phone went from last to first to post a head victory over pacesetter Morning Line in a time of 1:35.29 on a fast track.

This year's race has three fewer horses than last year with four-year-old Trappe Shot the 3-1 program favorite. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the chestnut colt drew the far outside post with John Velazquez riding.

Trappe Shot has won two of four starts this year, but is coming off a fourth in the Vosburgh at Belmont Park after losing by a nose in the Vanderbilt Handicap at Saratoga. His wins were in a pair of spring stakes at Belmont Park, True North Handicap and Waldoboro Stakes.

Despite his last two starts Trappe Shot got the favorite's role for the Dirt Mile due to his ability to stay just off the pace and fire at the right time.

"The Factor, Shackleford and Tapizar are 1, 2 and 3, so they're going to have to go, so we might get back further stalking them. We might be 10-lengths back if they go a half in 44 (seconds). You never know," McLaughlin said. "It's a great post position because we don't have to be involved in all of that. We're out in the clear."

The Factor and Shackleford, both three-year-olds, are co-second picks at 7-2.

The Factor is trained by Bob Baffert and will have Martin Garcia in the saddle and carry three pounds less than the favorite as will all three-year-olds.

The gray colt was sidelined after losing the Arkansas Derby as the 4-5 favorite. It was discovered that he had a hairline fracture following the race. He returned in August to win the Pat O'Brien Stakes at Del Mar and was fourth in the Ancient Title at Santa Anita.

Preakness Stakes champ Shackleford will be ridden by Jesus Castanon for trainer Dale Romans. The chestnut colt was fifth in the Belmont Stakes with a strong second to Coil in the Haskell. He faded to eighth in the Travers, but came in second to Wilburn in the Indiana Derby.

"We hadn't done much with him since the Indiana Derby and wanted to give him a good work," the trainer noted after a workout. "I've never had a horse run bad after working in 58. You just can't make a horse work like that.

"I can't see anything happening other than The Factor going right for the lead and we'll sit just behind him. And, if Tapizar wants to join him, we'll be happy to sit third. He's not a horse that needs the lead. He'll listen to his rider."

The 4-1 fourth pick is Indiana Derby winner Wilburn owned by Stonestreet Stables and trained by Steve Asmussen. The three-year-old colt is working on a three-race win streak, which includes the Smarty Jones Stakes at Parx Racing.

"Julien (jockey Leparoux) got a dream trip in the Indiana Derby," Asmussen said. "The door was open for him, but he definitely stormed through it. You can get a good trip, but he looked good with the good trip. I like the acceleration he showed.

"I think the trip is extremely important with him. He's a great big horse, bit, tall and leggy. His confidence is exactly where you'd want it to be coming into a race like this, so we feel good about it."

Wilburn will again have Leparoux in the saddle and break from post five.

Another three-year-old entered in the Dirt Mile is Caleb's Posse who ran down Uncle Mo to win the King's Bishop Stakes at Saratoga. The colt is 5-1 in the program and will start from post eight with Rajiv Maragh.

Trained by Donnie Von Hemel, Caleb's Posse won the Amsterdam at Saratoga, but came in third in the Indiana Derby last time out.

"It's hard to say why he didn't run a little better, but it's not surprising that we ran third in a race like that," Von Hemel said. "I thought the winner ran a good race, he got through on the rail, but I don't think anyone was going to beat him (Wilburn) that day. Our horse just kind of ran even. It wasn't outstanding, but the main thing for us was the timing and straight three-year-olds. It was a way for us to get here.

"Because the Dirt Mile was the more likely spot for us, we decided to use the Indiana Derby as a prep," Von Hemel said. "We were stabled in Chicago (Arlington Park), so there wasn't a lot of travel for us. We figured we'd pop over to Indiana and then to Kentucky. We didn't want to have to make another trip back East."

At 12-1 is the well traveled Irrefutable. The five-year-old is trained by Baffert and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano from post six. The gray horse has started on five different tracks this year, including Churchill Downs.

He won a six-furlong allowance race in Louisville on May 4 and two months later moved into stakes company with a second in the Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder.

"We put him in and we know he's a longshot, but he ran well here last spring, and he ran his best race Beyer-wise here as well," Baffert remarked.

The horse was sixth in a pair of stakes before running second in the Ancient Title Stakes at Santa Anita to put him into the Dirt Mile.

"In the Ancient Title we just let him break and come from off the pace and it worked out; he ran a big race," Baffert said. "He'll be coming at the end."

At 15-1 is 2010 Cigar Mile winner Jersey Town. The five-year-old has Cornelio Velasquez riding for trainer Barclay Tagg of Funny Cide fame. The chestnut horse will go for his initial win this year from post seven.

The speedy Tapizar, as mentioned earlier, has the three hole and is 20-1 in the program with Garrett Gomez up for Steve Asmussen. In January the three- year-old won the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita and is coming off an optional claiming victory.

At 30-1 San Diego Handicap winner Tres Borrachos is the longest shot in the morning-line. He followed his win at Del Mar with a sixth in the Pacific Classic and a fifth in the Goodwood. Trained by Marty Jones, the gelding will break from post four with Joel Rosario riding.

There's more than enough speed in the Dirt Mile to give the stalkers and late runners a chance to pounce down the stretch. A good price can be had by all.

Morning-line favorite Trappe Shot over Jersey Town and Irrefutable is the play for Saturday.

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Just like Day 1 of the “Sweet 16”, Friday’s games are chock full of some of the nation’s elite.  Unlike Thursday’s games, there is a little bit more of a “Cinderella” feel as #7 seed UNLV and #6 seed Vanderbilt will attempt to move on to the Elite Eight.  With powerhouses Florida, UNC and Georgetown looking to continue their momentum against lesser known teams, it isn’t surprising that once again the “betting public” is backing most of the favorites.  As the early coin rolls in, 56% of Sportsbook.com bettors prefer Georgetown (-7.5) as they take on Vanderbilt; 84% of the early money is backing Oregon (-3) as they square off against UNLV; and a slight majority (52%) of the early cash is on Florida (-10.5) against Butler as the Gators continue their quest for another National Title. The only favorite the public don’t seem confident in is UNC, as 59% of the cash is backing the underdog Trojans (+8).

Midwest

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler

The defending National Champs have been on a mission since last April.  Joakim Noah and Al Horford turned down millions of dollars for one reason, to REPEAT.  After a late season hiccup which saw them lose three out of four, the Gators have won six straight by an average of 20.3 points. More importantly, they covered in five of those six games.  Behind their stymie defense that yields only 56.9 PPG, Butler has been a very pleasant surprise this season.  As their 20-11 ATS record will indicate, “surprise teams” like Butler are often good bets for gamblers.  Playing in an average conference, Butler wasn’t and underdog too often but when they were, they covered (6-0 ATS).  Butler’s defense will have its hands full against a Gators offense which averages 80.1 PPG on an amazing 52.9% shooting from the field.  With Florida’s tournament experience over the last few years, it isn’t surprising that they are 5-1 ATS this season, 20-4 ATS over the last three seasons and 38-20 since 1997 in tournament action.

#3 Oregon vs. #7 UNLV

As a #7 seed, UNLV is the closest thing to a “Cinderella” we have this year.  If you bet on UNLV this season with any regularity, you most likely cashed in. Behind their guard oriented attack, the Rebels are an impressive 20-11 ATS this season.  As an underdog they covered in 8 out of their ten games which isn’t surprising since they are 52-30 ATS as a ‘dog since 1997. The Rebels have been a consistent cover during the month of March as well.  This March they are 6-0 ATS, 11-3 ATS over the last three seasons and 24-11 since 1997. Their impressive ATS trends don’t end there; versus teams with a winning record they are 15-6 ATS this season and 41-21 over the last three seasons.  Although Oregon hasn’t been as generous to gamblers as UNLV this season, they have been covering consistently as of late.  There is no question that they are playing their best ball of the season having won their last 8 straight up (SU) by an average of 14.5 points. Not surprising they covered in 7 of those games.  It is interesting to note how similar these teams are in regards to scoring and scoring defense. UNLV averages 75 PPG while giving up 66.5 PPG and Oregon scores 75.8 PPG while yielding 65.5 PPG.

East

#6 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Georgetown

“Hoya Paranoia” is officially back! After a decent start, Georgetown has rolled through the second half of the season.  Over their last 18 games, they are 17-1 SU.  They have definitely improved ATS as the season has progressed as well. After opening the season 1-4-1 ATS, the Hoyas have covered 78.3% of their games.  With their great interior play of Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert, the Hoyas as a team shoot 50.5% from the field.  Like the Georgetown teams from years ago, they also excel on defense.  Hoya opponents averaged only 56.8 PPG on 38.2% shooting from the field and an extremely low 30.4% from beyond the arc.  The last stat could be of some concern to Vanderbilt considering they shoot 37.7% from long-range.  Ranking second to last in the SEC in rebounding margin, Vanderbilt will have its work cut out for them against the Hoya trees. As far as covering is concerned, Vanderbilt has been almost a “sure thing” (7-1 ATS) versus good defensive teams that allow less than 64 PPG.

#1 UNC vs. # 5 USC

The Tar Heels are as talented and as deep as any team in the country.  Going ten deep and chock full of HS All-Americans, UNC averages 86.1 PPG and scored 100+ seven times.  Led by All-American forward, Tyler Hansbrough (18.6 PPG 7.9 RPG) UNC has a very balanced attack which can kill you on the inside as well as on the perimeter.  UNC only real concern is their youth as eight of their rotation players are either sophomores or freshmen.  UNC was a reliable cover this season going 20-13 ATS.  An intriguing covering trend for the Tar Heels in recent years has been how they fared after non-conference games.  This season they are 11-3 ATS after non-conference games and over the last three seasons they are 31-13 ATS.  USC is also a pretty deep team which is loaded with swingman types.  An match-up to keep an eye on will be freshman forward Taj Gibson (12.1 PPG, 8.6 RPG) as he squares off against the AA Hansbrough.  USC has been a covering machine this season achieving a 21-10 record ATS.  They have thrived in the underdog role, having covered 10 out of 12.  When playing a team with a winning record, the Trojans are an incredible 20-6 ATS. Keep in mind, USC dedicated their season to former star to Ryan Francis who passed away before the season so as they get closer to the ultimate goal, emotion could definitely be on their side.

With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action.  Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at this sportsbook “Betting Trends”.  By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.

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