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12/22/2006 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The final two weeks of the regular season are upon us, and now is the time to bet against teams that already have locked up playoff bids.
Indianapolis and Seattle combined for a 1-5 ATS mark in the last three weeks of last season, and back in 04, four division winners (Colts, Eagles, Packers and Falcons) combined to go 2-10 ATS in the final three weeks of the regular season. Just something to keep in mind as this year winds down.
There are a few match-ups that follow that trend this weekend, and one of them comes from East Rutherford, New Jersey, where the 7-7 Giants host the Saints. New York shot itself in the foot last Sunday, losing to Philadelphia, 36-22. The Giants now are tied for the final wild-card spot with Atlanta, although they do have a win under their belts over the Falcons. Green Bay, with its win over Minnesota, is now 7-8. Three teams stand at 6-8, so a loss to New Orleans would be devastating for New York.
The Saints clinched the NFC South after the Falcons lost to the Cowboys last week. New Orleans hosts the Panthers in its final game. If Carolina loses at Atlanta this week, then the Panthers will have nothing to play for in their game vs. New Orleans. So the Saints could still finish with 10 wins and get a first-round bye.
This game means the world to the Giants and not as much to the Saints. Making the playoffs is a little more important than fighting for homefield advantage, so Big Blue has a decided mental edge heading into the game. Sometimes thats all a team needs during the last couple of weeks of the regular season.
There are a few more games of this nature on Sunday, starting with Baltimore at Pittsburgh. The Ravens have clinched the division and more than likely will be a little less intense than they have been in previous weeks.
Pittsburgh, surprising as it sounds, is still alive after winning its last three games. The Steelers are making one final push for the playoffs, and since this is a 1 p.m. Eastern Time start, they won't know if they are out of the chase until after the game. In addition, they have defeated the Ravens each of the last four years at home
Seattle takes on San Diego, and the Seahawks have yet to clinch the NFC West. The last two games have seen the team give up a combined 41 points to Arizona and San Francisco.
At first glance, trying to hold down the Chargers seems like an impossible task. SD has ridden the LT Train all season long, to the tune of 12-2. However, the Bolts pretty much have clinched a first-round bye, especially since they host Arizona for their final game. Seattle needs a win in the worst way, not only to clinch the division, but also to restore a winning attitude among last years NFC Super Bowl representative.
Finally, New England travels to Jacksonville, another team fighting for a playoff spot. The Jaguars were humbled at Tennessee last week, despite holding the Titans to only 98 yards of total offense. Tennessees defense was the story, scoring three touchdowns in the team's fifth straight win.
The Jags have to go to Kansas City for their regular season finale, so a win this week at home is a must. They have been unstoppable at ALLTELL Stadium this year, winning and covering six of their seven games and outscoring their opponents by an average score of 27-9. The Patriots do not have as much to play for since the AFC East is all but wrapped up. They are also 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
To recap, go with the Giants, Steelers, Seahawks and Jaguars.
Two other contests feature major mismatches on paper, as the 10-3 Colts play the 4-10 Texans, while the 2-12 Lions host the 12-2 Bears. I recommend playing the home-town underdogs in these contests, but not as heavily as the four choices listed above.
THIS WEEKS TOP PLAY
Just like last Sunday when the Giants were 5 1/2-point favorites over the Eagles, I don't understand why the Cowboys are such heavy favorites this week over the E-A-G-L-E-S. Philly is playing as well as any team in the NFC right now and usually holds its own with Dallas. The Eagles have won eight of the last 11 match-ups, failing to cover only three of them. They are also 3-2 SU in Dallas in the last five years and one of the losses came by two points.
Take Philadelphia plus the seven and you'll have a very merry Christmas.
<< Aberdeen, Rangers battle for second place
Aberdeen, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With league-leaders Celtic a whopping
14 points clear of the rest of the pack, it is time to start playing for
second place for the rest of the Scottish Premier League.
On Saturday, second-pla
<< Pistons get 'Sheed back
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Pistons got one of their key players back this
week when Rasheed Wallace returned from a two-game absence to help beat the
division-rival Cleveland Cavaliers.
Wallace, who had missed the previous two wins
<< U.S. WNT to open 2007 against Germany
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The United States Women's National Team will
open the 2007 season by participating in the Four Nations Tournament from Jan.
26-30 in China.
The tourney will pit the U.S. versus some of the world's stronge
<< Griffey breaks hand
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cincinnati Reds center fielder Ken Griffey
Jr. suffered a broken left hand due to an undisclosed accident at his home,
the team announced Friday.
Griffey, an 18-year veteran and 12-time All-Star, will
Bucks need some road work >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Bucks can just forget about their five-game
home winning streak because it's on the road where this team struggles.
Milwaukee, which resides in last place in the Central Division, has lost four
straight o
Top three stay the same in FIFA Women's Rankings >>
Zurich, Switzerland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Germany finishes the year as the
world's top women's team for the fourth year in a row in the FIFA World
Rankings which came out Friday.
The USA and Norway hold the second and third place
Playoffs Remain a Possibility for Rams >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The playoffs are still on the minds of the St. Louis Rams,
and they will try to do whatever it takes to stay afloat in the crowded waters
of the NFC postseason race.
St. Louis will shoot for its second straight win on Sund
Titans, Bills, Seek to Maintain Momentum >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tennessee Titans didn't need rookie quarterback Vince
Young to lead them to their fifth straight win last week, because the defense
did all the work. The Titans are likely to require more of Young's services on
Sunday, wh
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
To visit this sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your college football betting needs.
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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